Kirgizië – FutureWater

The Central Asia Regional Economic Cooperation (CAREC) Program is a partnership of 11 countries from Central Asia, South Asia, the Caucasus, as well as Mongolia and the People’s Republic of China and works to increase regional cooperation to help the region shift to low carbon development pathways and build resilience against climate induced hazards. ADB hosts the CAREC secretariat and helps to facilitate projects that deliver regional benefits.

In 2017, CAREC introduced agriculture and water as a new pillar under the CAREC 2030 strategy to provide a conducive and trusted platform to foster regional cooperation and integration on water security. The water pillar was established in 2020 and its scope was devised in 2022. Since then, a number of activities and consultations with CAREC countries have been undertaken including provision of a long list of potential regional projects that could be financed by ADB.

In this project prefeasibility studies will be conducted for three selected priority projects:

Climate change adaptation through improving irrigation efficiency in the Aral Sea Basin
Climate Resiliency of Bakhri Tojik reservoir for improved irrigation and energy supply
Joint Automated Water Metering System in the Aral Sea Basin

The prefeasibility studies entail:

Technical, financial, economic, poverty and social analysis.
Environment, social, and indigenous people’s safeguards assessments.
Climate change assessments.
Financial management and procurement capacity assessments; and
Institutional set-up and project implementation arrangements.

For these prefeasibility studies FutureWater conducts the climate risk assessment.

The project prepares robust climate mitigation and adaptation pipelines aligned with the Paris Agreement and responsive to DMCs climate change priorities. The TA will support interventions on departmental, sectoral and country levels with key activities including development of a regional strategy, upstream climate assessments, climate pipeline development, government dialogues and capacity building. As part of this project, FutureWater conducts a regional climate risk assessment for ten countries. This includes an assessment of baseline and future climate hazards, exposure and vulnerability and addressing sectoral impacts and adaptation options for a wide range of sectors. In addition country profiles summarizing climate risks for the ten countries are generated. The reginal climate risk assessment feeds into the climate strategy.

In de afgelopen decennia is efficiënt waterbeheer een belangrijk onderdeel geweest van het waterbeleid van de EU. Dit onderwerp krijgt hernieuwde aandacht in de herziene EU-aanpassingsstrategie van 2021, waarin de noodzaak van een kennisgestuurde benadering van waterbesparende technologieën en instrumenten, zoals efficiënte toewijzing van watervoorraden, wordt benadrukt. Het speciale IPCC-rapport over oceanen en de cryosfeer in een veranderend klimaat (2019) wijst op de combinatie van waterbeheer en klimaatrisico’s als potentiële oorzaken van spanningen over schaarse watervoorraden binnen en over landsgrenzen heen, met name bij concurrerende vraag tussen waterkracht en irrigatie in grensoverschrijdende gletsjer- en sneeuwgevoede stroomgebieden in Centraal-Azië.

De innovatieve aanpak van WE-ACT bestaat uit twee complementaire innovatieacties: de eerste is de ontwikkeling van een gegevensketen voor een betrouwbaar waterinformatiesysteem, dat op zijn beurt de tweede mogelijk maakt, namelijk het ontwerp en de uitrol van een beslissingsondersteunend systeem (DSS) voor de toewijzing van watervoorraden. De gegevensketen voor het betrouwbare waterinformatiesysteem bestaat uit realtime in-situ hydrometeorologische en glaciologische monitoringtechnologie, modellering van het watersysteem (inclusief modellering van wateraanbod en -vraag en watervoetafdrukanalyses) en gletsjermassabalans, datawarehousetechnologie en machine learning.

De uitrol van het DSS voor klimaatrisicogestuurde toewijzing van watervoorraden bestaat uit analyses van belanghebbenden en instellingen, methoden voor waardebepaling van water, de opzet van het waterinformatiesysteem om een gebruiksvriendelijke interface mogelijk te maken, ontwikkeling van gebruiksscenario’s voor watertoewijzing en feedback over watergebruik via nationale beleidsdialogen.

Het werk van FutureWater binnen de WE-ACT-studie zal zich richten op het inschatten van de waterbehoefte en watervoetafdrukken van de verschillende gebruikers en activiteiten binnen het Syr Darya-stroomgebied. Daarom zullen de effecten van watertoewijzing op watervoetafdrukken, onvervulde watervraag en schendingen van milieustromen worden geëvalueerd met behulp van een reeks hydrologische modellen, zoals SPHY en Water Allocation-modellen (WEAP). Dit zal worden gedaan voor zowel de huidige situatie als toekomstige scenario’s.

Voor meer informatie kunt u de WE-ACT projectwebsite bezoeken.

Agriculture is the most water demanding and consuming sector, globally responsible for most of the human induced water withdrawals. This abstraction of water is a critical input for agricultural production and plays an important role in food security as irrigated agriculture represents about 20 percent of the total cultivated land while contributing by 40 percent of the total food produced worldwide.

The FAO Regional Office for Asia and the Pacific (FAO-RAP) is concerned about this increase in water use over the last decades that has led to water scarcity in many countries. This trend will continue as the gap between water demand and supply is projected to widen due to factors such as population growth and economic development, and environmental factors such as land degradation and climate change.

Unfortunately, solutions to overcome the current and future water crisis by looking at the agricultural sector are not simple and have often led to unrealistic expectations. Misconceptions and overly simplistic (and often erroneous) views have been flagged and described over the last recent decades. However, uptake of those new insights by decision makers and the irrigation sector itself has been limited.

The “Follow the Water” project will develop a Guidance Document that summarizes those aspects and, more importantly, quantifies the return flows that occurs in irrigated systems. Those return flows are collected from a wide range of experiments and are collected in a database to be used as reference for new and/or rehabilitation irrigation projects.

The FAO/FutureWater project will also develop a simple-to-use tool to track water in irrigated systems using so-called “virtual tracers”. The tool will respond to the demand for a better understanding the role of reuse of water in irrigated agriculture systems. An extensive training package, based on the Guidance and the Tool, is developed as well.

FAO plays an essential role in backstopping the development of the Guidance and the Tool and promoting. FutureWater takes the lead in development of the Guidance, the Tool and the training package. With this, FAO and FutureWater will contribute to a sustainable future of our water resources.

Recently, the Central Asia Regional Economic Cooperation (CAREC) Program introduced agriculture and water as a new cluster in its strategic framework. Recognizing the complexities of the water sector and the existing landscape of cooperation activities, the strategic framework proposes a complementary approach that uses the strengths of CAREC to further promote dialogue on water issues. A scoping study was commissioned, supported by the Asian Development Bank (ADB), to develop a framework for the Water Pillar for further consideration by the governing bodies of CAREC. It was agreed that the initial focus of the Water Pillar should be on the five Central Asian states with consideration given to expanding to other CAREC member countries over time.

The objective of the study is to develop the scope of a Water Pillar Framework that includes a roadmap of national development interventions for each of the five Central Asian Republics that responds to the prevailing challenges and opportunities in water resources management.

The framework will be derived from three specific outputs:

Output 1: Projection of future availability and demand for water resources for the Central Asia region up to 2050 including implications of climate change.
Output 2: Identification of future water resources development and management opportunities in the form of a sector specific framework for water resources infrastructure taking into consideration sustainability issues through a comparative assessment of cost recovery mechanisms and operation and maintenance (O&M) practices.
Output 3: Preparation of a framework for policy and institutional strengthening that addresses common themes and issues related to national water resources legislation and the capacity and knowledge development needs of water resources agencies with an emphasis on economic aspects and sustainable financing.

For this work, FutureWater provides key inputs on the climate change and water resources aspects, including desk review, stakeholder consultations across the five regions and across all sectors, and analysis of climate change risks and identification of adaptation options that have a regional dimension and can be taken up through regional or bilateral cooperation. Following the scoping study, FutureWater supports in the identification of priority activities based on an extensive consultative process in the region, with emphasis on climate resilience. Also it supports the identification of potential water pillar development partners and financing opportunities, including steps needed to qualify for climate finance

Kyrgyzstan is a highly mountainous country with relatively high precipitation in upslope areas. This, alongside the development and deforestation of basins to make way for industry and agriculture means that land has become increasingly degraded and vulnerable to erosion over recent decades. Reservoirs in the country provide access to water resources and energy in the form of hydropower, but are highly susceptible to sedimentation by eroded material. Sedimentation necessitates increased maintenance costs, reduces storage capacity and disrupts hydropower generation. It is therefore proposed that landscape scale restoration measures (e.g. tree planting) can provide key ecosystem services by reducing vulnerability to erosion and decreasing sediment delivery to reservoirs. This project therefore identifies highly degraded areas of land and determines in which of these interventions are possible. With the outcomes of this study, the World Bank – in partnership with the government of Kyrgyzstan – can prioritise investments in terms of landscape restoration efforts. The outcomes of this project will therefore reduce maintenance costs for reservoirs and contribute to the afforestation and restoration of multiple areas in Kyrgyzstan.

The SREB is part of the Belt and Road Initiative, being a development strategy that focuses on connectivity and cooperation between Eurasian countries. Essentially, the SREB includes countries situated on the original Silk Road through Central Asia, West Asia, the Middle East, and Europe. The initiative calls for the integration of the region into a cohesive economic area through building infrastructure, increasing cultural exchanges, and broadening trade. A major part of the SREB traverses Asia’s high-altitude areas, also referred to as the Third Pole or the Asian Water Tower. In the light of the planned development for the SREB traversing the Third Pole and its immediate surroundings, the “Pan-Third Pole Environment study for a Green Silk Road (Pan-TPE)” program will be implemented.

The project will assess the state and fate of water resources in the region under following research themes:

1. Observed and projected Pan-TPE climate change
2. Impacts on the present and future Water Tower of Asia
3. The Green Silk Road and changes in water demand
4. Adaptation for green development

The energy sector is sensitive to changes in seasonal weather patterns and extremes that can affect the supply of energy, harm transmission capacity, disrupt oil and gas production, and impact the integrity of transmission pipelines and power distribution. Most infrastructure has been built to design codes based on historic climate data and will require rehabilitation, upgrade or replacement in the coming years. This poses both a challenge and an opportunity for adaptation. Central Asia is one of the most vulnerable regions in the world. Expected climate impacts range from increased temperature (across the region), changes in precipitation and snow, greater extreme weather events, aridisation and desertification, health, and changes in water resources.

Energy and water are closely interrelated as water is used to generate energy (hydropower, cooling of thermal plants) but energy is also required to fulfil water needs (e.g. pumping, water treatment, desalination). Especially in Central Asia, meeting daily energy needs depends to a large extent on water. Guaranteeing sufficient water resources for energy production, and appropriately allocating the limited supply, is becoming increasingly difficult. As the region’s population keeps on growing, competing demand for water from other sectors is expected to grow, potentially exacerbating the issue.

The World Bank is committed to working with the governments of Central Asia to undertake analysis and to identify priorities in adaptation to climate change, including strengthening regional trade through a rigorous, transparent region-scale study. Therefore it currently undertakes a regional assessment to identify areas of possible coordination and possible transboundary impact. The overall project objective is to contribute to a better understanding of the challenges and opportunities for effective joint management of climate adaptation, contributing to the objective of the World Bank’s Central Asia strategy of energy and water security through enhanced cooperation. The results of this assessment should guide current and future decision-makers on options for investments in and management of power generation and transmission/distribution assets through enhanced cooperation.

The objective of this study is to support the “Central Asia Regional Energy Sector Vulnerability Study” led by Industrial Economics (IEc) and funded by the World Bank, by carrying out an expanded risk assessment for water availability and water related energy sector impacts in the region. The work will build on the existing tools developed previously for Syr Darya and Amu Darya basins. Various necessary extensions and enhancements of the tools will be made to include the latest understanding of climatological and hydrological processes and include the latest planned investments in hydropower facilities and cooling water abstractions of the thermal power plants in the region.

Water resources management in the Central Asia region faces big challenges. The hydrological regimes of the two major rivers in the region, the Syr Darya and the Amu Darya, are complex and vulnerable to climate change. Water diversions to agricultural, industrial and domestic users have reduced flows in downstream regions, resulting in severe ecological damages. The administrative-institutional system is fragmented, with six independent countries sharing control, often with contradicting objectives.

Under the leadership of the Finnish Consulting Group and in collaboration with the Finnish Meteorological Institute, FutureWater develops hydrological models to assess the water resources availability in the region under climate change. The project focuses on the Aral Sea basin (Pamir and Tien Shan mountains) in Kyrgyz Republic, Tajikistan, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan. Hydrological models are developed for the Amu Darya and Syr Darya and include several climate change impact scenarios. The project develops national capacity in each of the participating countries to use the models to prepare climate change impact scenarios and develop adaptation strategies. This will then result in improved national strategies for climate change adaptation. We collaborate closely with the main regional and national organizations responsible for land and water management.