Concept
SPHY (Spatial Processes in Hydrology) is een conceptueel, ruimtelijk gedistribueerd (op raster gebaseerd) “leaky-bucket”-type waterbalansmodel. Het model integreert dominante hydrologische processen zoals (i) neerslag-afvoer; (ii) uitstroom van meren / reservoirs, (iii) cryosferische processen (sneeuw, ijs, gletsjers) (iv) verdamping en (v) hydrologische bodemprocessen. Het SPHY-model is in de loop van de tijd ontwikkeld en bijgewerkt door de beste componenten van bestaande en goed geteste simulatiemodellen te combineren: SRM, VIC, HydroS, SWAT, PCR-GLOBWB, SWAP en HimSim. SPHY omvat relevante terrestrische hydrologische processen op flexibele schalen (lokaal, regionaal en mondiaal), onder verschillende scenario’s van landgebruiksverandering, extreme weersomstandigheden en klimaatscenario’s. Een conceptueel overzicht van het SPHY-model is te zien in Figuur 1.
Massabehoud is het belangrijkste onderliggende concept dat wordt gebruikt in het SPHY-model. De dominante hydrologische processen worden gedefinieerd door de vergelijkingen en parameters. SPHY gebruikt een variabiliteitsbenadering op het subraster voor een juiste weergave van de processen die op fijnere ruimtelijke schalen werken. Een cel kan gletsjervrij, gedeeltelijk bedekt zijn met een gletsjer of volledig bedekt zijn met gletsjers. Het gedeelte van een cel dat niet door een gletsjer is bedekt kan een ander landgebruikstype zijn. De variabiliteit van het subraster wordt voornamelijk bepaald door de relatieve vegetatiebedekking, die van invloed is op processen zoals interceptie, (effectieve) neerslag en mogelijke verdamping.
De bodem/het landoppervlak is in SPHY verdeeld in twee lagen (de bovenste bodemlaag en de onderste bodemlaag) met daaronder een derde laag: het grondwater. Voor het landoppervlak/bodem zijn de bijbehorende drainagecomponenten gedefinieerd: oppervlakkige afstroming, laterale stroming en de permanente afvoer. Het smelten van gletsjerijs draagt bij aan de rivierafvoer door middel van een langzame en snelle component, namelijk (i) percolatie naar het grondwaterreservoir dat uiteindelijk de permanente afvoer wordt, en (ii) directe afvoer.
Het model simuleert het dynamische gedrag van de gletsjers door sleutelprocessen zoals accumulatie, ablatie en overdracht van ijsmassa van accumulatie naar ablatiezone op te nemen. Als de gletsjer massa verliest, wordt ijs uit de ablatiezone herverdeeld over de ablatiezone volgens de volume-herverdeling van het ijs.
Verder bevat SPHY een meer-module die de waterstand en het volume van het meer bijhoudt bij elke stap van de modelsimulatie. De meer-module gebruikt een geavanceerde regeling om de stroom van meer-cellen naar de stroomafwaartse regio’s te bepalen. Daarnaast maakt SPHY gebruik van een erosiemodule die de bodemerosie berekent als gevolg van regendruppels, oppervlakkige afstroming en rivierafvoer.
In modellenland is er geen beste model beschikbaar dat geschikt is voor alle soorten toepassingen. De modelkeuze wordt gedreven door de algemene doelstelling van het project. SPHY onderscheidt zich echter in vergelijking met andere modellen vanwege het brede scala aan functionaliteiten zoals:
Ruimtelijke schaal
Het SPHY-model kan worden toegepast op flexibele ruimtelijke schalen, zoals kleinschalige landbouwbedrijven, (middel)grote deelstroomgebieden en grootschalige regionale en mondiale toepassingen. SPHY helpt de gebruiker om de ruimtelijke verschillen en variabiliteit van het belangrijkste hydrologische proces beter te begrijpen. Verder kan het model op verschillende ruimtelijke schalen worden gebruikt voor verschillende processen binnen dezelfde simulatie. Zo kan bijvoorbeeld een gletsjer op een resolutie van 50 meter worden gemodelleerd terwijl de modelresolutie 1000 meter is.
Tijdelijke schaal
Het SPHY-model kan worden toegepast van subdagelijkse tot dagelijkse, wekelijkse, maandelijkse en jaarlijkse tijdsstappen, afhankelijk van de dagelijkse variaties van de belangrijkste hydrologische processen en de beschikbaarheid van gegevens.
Aanpassingsvermogen
Het SPHY-model kan eenvoudig worden aangepast voor gebruik in verschillende klimatologische omstandigheden over de hele wereld. Dit is erg handig als de gebruiker hydrologische processen bestudeert in regio’s waar niet alle hydrologische processen relevant zijn. Een gebruiker kan bijvoorbeeld geïnteresseerd zijn in het bestuderen van de behoefte aan irrigatiewater in Centraal-Afrika. Voor deze regio zijn gletsjer- en sneeuwsmeltprocessen niet relevant en kunnen dus worden uitgeschakeld. Een andere gebruiker is wellicht alleen geïnteresseerd in het simuleren van vochtcondities in de eerste grondlaag, waardoor de mogelijkheid bestaat om de routing- en grondwatermodules uit te schakelen.
Benodigde gegevens
Een gebruiker kan alle waarnemingen op de grond gebruiken, zoals hydrologische gegevens: afvoer, cryosferische gegevens: sneeuwbedekking, gletsjermassabalans, gewasgegevens: statische gewascoëfficiënten, bladoppervlakindex, meer- en reservoirinformatie enz., Vaak is het zo dat meer gegevens er voor zorgen dat het model beter gekalibreerd kan worden waardoor de betrouwbaarheid en nauwkeurigheid van het model wordt vergroot. Maar zowel in een gebied met veel data als een gebied zonder veel data kan SPHY worden ingezet.
Gebruiksvriendelijkheid
Het SPHY-model is gebruiksvriendelijk en kan worden toegepast door iedereen met algemene kennis van de belangrijkste hydrologische processen. Een statische constante of stochastische tijdreeks of een complexere rasterkaart kan worden geleverd als invoer afhankelijk van de gebruiker. Verder biedt het SPHY-model een schat aan uitvoergegevens die kunnen worden geselecteerd op basis van de voorkeur van de gebruiker. Ruimtelijke output kan worden gepresenteerd als ruimtelijke kaarten van alle hydrologische processen. Deze kaarten kunnen dagelijks worden gegenereerd, maar ook op maand- of jaarbasis. Daarnaast kunnen voor elke willekeurige locatie in het modelgebied tijdreeksen worden gegenereerd van de wensen van de gebruiker.
FutureWater-toepassingen
FutureWater gebruikt het SPHY-model in verschillende contexten en toepassingen. Hoe het model wordt ingezet hangt per project af van de vereisten. Hieronder volgen een aantal voorbeeld van de SPHY-modeltoepassing.
Verleden en toekomstige hydrologische veranderingen
SPHY is toegepast op tal van projecten om de historische hydrologische regimes en de toekomstige veranderingen te beoordelen. Het model is gebruikt in de projecten HICAP en HI-AWARE om de belangrijkste aspecten van de historische en toekomstige veranderingen in hydrologische regimes van grote stroomgebieden in Zuidoost-Azië en Centraal-Azië te begrijpen. Verder onderzoekt het HI-AWARE-project de veranderingen in hydro-klimatologische extremen (overstromingen en droogtes) in de regio. Daarnaast wordt SPHY in Pan-TPE gebruikt om de impact van klimaatverandering voor een duurzame ontwikkeling van de Silk Road Economic Belt (SREB) in de derde poolregio te onderzoeken.
Stroomgebiedsbeheer
SPHY is in het ‘Strategic Basin Planning Ganga River Basin’ project gebruikt om de interacties tussen oppervlakte en grondwater in het stroomgebied van de Ganges te begrijpen om daarmee de riviermodellen te verfijnen. In het project is gebruik gemaakt van allerlei soorten informatie op verschillende schalen om zo de scenariomodellering te kunnen ondersteunen. In het project zijn ook een aantal scenario’s verkend met SPHY die alternatieve opties bieden voor het verbeteren van het waterbeheer, waaronder het verbeteren van de riviergezondheid.
Irrigatiebeheer
SPHY is vaak toegepast met als doel om veldspecifiek irrigatieadvies te kunnen geven aan kleinschalige boerenbedrijven in landen als Roemenië en Angola. Het resultaat van het project in Roemenië is een systeem waarin online in-situ grondgegevens over bodemvochtgehalte en SPHY-berekeningen van de wortelzone en ondiepe ondergrond worden getoond.
Afvoer prognoses
SPHY wordt toegepast voor het operationele waterbeheer in een stroomgebied in Chili. In dit project is SPHY gebruikt in een geïntegreerd systeem, waarin metingen die zijn afgeleid van zowel aardobservatiesatellieten als in situ sensoren worden gecombineerd om de seizoensafhankelijke afvoer tijdens het sneeuwsmeltseizoen te voorspellen.
Landdegradatie en herstel
SPHY is in Madagaskar gebruikt ter ondersteuning van geïntegreerde besluitvorming over landschapsbeheer in Madagascar door verbeterde ruimtelijke gegevens over bodemdegradatie te leveren. Daarnaast is een prototype-model ontwikkeld waarmee het simuleren, evalueren en heroriënteren van landgebruik en veranderingsprocessen van landgebruik eenvoudig lokaal kan worden gedaan.
Energie
SPHY is in verschillende landen (Georgië, Indonesië, Kenia, Tanzania, Nepal) gebruikt om de toekomstige rivierafvoer te berekenen waarmee de toepasbaarheid van (kleine) waterkrachtcentrales kan worden beoordeeld. Deze projecten verkennen het effect van landgebruik en klimaatverandering op rivierafvoeren die vervolgens gebruikt moeten worden door de waterkrachtontwikkelaars om de technische en financiële haalbaarheid van de projecten onder veranderend klimaat te beoordelen.
Hydroclimatische uitersten en samengestelde gebeurtenissen
Het SPHY-model is gebruikt in verschillende wetenschappelijke onderzoeksprojecten zoals SYSTEM-RISK en IMPREX om een systeembenadering te onderzoeken voor grootschalige beoordeling en beheer van overstromingsrisico’s als gevolg van samengestelde extreme gebeurtenissen.
Kijk voor meer informatie over het model en andere toepassingen op http://www.sphy.nl/.
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The Nairobi Water Fund: hydrologic modelling and economic valuation of investment options
In 2013 The Nature Conservancy (TNC) started working to launch the first Water Fund in Africa to restore and protect the condition of the Tana River and improve Nairobi’s water security. Key questions that needed to be answered were “Where and in what activities should the fund invest its money?”...
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Gridded Meteorological Datasets and Hydrological Modelling in the Upper Indus Basin
Understanding of the hydrological regimes in the mountainous Upper Indus basin (UIB) is essential for water resources management in the region. High-resolution gridded meteorological datasets, which capture the spatial variability of precipitation, are critical for modelling the hydrology of high-mountain regions. Improvements to existing gridded datasets using high-elevation station data...
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Climate adaptation Colombia
The 2011 floods and droughts in the Magdalena river basin triggered the Colombian government and water institutions to enforce the attention given to water security and dike safety. To improve the capacities of Colombia for adaptation of water management to climate change pilot projects were started in one small and...
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Online field-scale irrigation management for Romania
In this project a field-scale irrigation planning and management system was setup and tested. The basis for this system is formed by online in-situ ground data on soil moisture content and hydrological model calculations of the root zone and shallow subsoil. Weather stations and soil moisture sensors were installed at...
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Monitoring of Glacier, Climate and Runoff in the Hindu – Kush Himalayan Mountains
For this project a review was conducted of current state of knowledge in (i) climate change datasets and downscaling used for glacier and high mountain modelling, (ii) glacier and snow contribution to river runoff in the Hindu – Kush Himalayan (HKH) region, (iii) hydrological modelling studies used for glacier and...
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Assessment of the Irrigation Potential in Nile Countries in Central Africa
In order to fill gaps in the Nile Basin Initiative and member country information bases on agricultural water use the irrigation potential of seven Nile countries was assessed. This project consisted of several consecutive steps, in which hydrological modelling, the use of remote sensed data, ArcGIS analyses, consultation workshops and...
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Irrigation Potential Lake Victoria, Tanzania
A study was undertaken to evaluate and rank five potential irrigation schemes in the Tanzania part of the Lake Victoria Basin. The study focused on the following five thematic areas: (i) land suitability, (ii) water resources assessment, (iii) water requirements, (iv) environmental considerations, and (v) institutional aspects.
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Mekong River Basin Modeling Framework Development
The Mekong River Commission (MRC) Information and Knowledge Management Programme (IKMP) is developing and expanding its modeling framework. FutureWater was asked to support the process by developing a complete strategy and to prepare a set of tender documents for implementation of the strategy. The project resulted in six specific Program...
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Remote Sensing and Hydrological Modelling of the Rio Bravo, Aguascalientes and Central Northern Valleys
The project has shown how modern analytical tools such Remote Sensing, GIS and simulation models can help to swiftly obtain data to support the water management decision making process. A diagnosis of the Rio Bravo and Northern Central Aquifers has been made to demonstrate management options as well as how...
