Uitdaging
Bergen fungeren als wereldwijde ‘watertorens’ die water opslaan en afvoeren naar stroomafwaarts gelegen gebieden, waar ze in de behoeften van mens en mileu voorzien. In vergelijking met benedenstroomse gebieden genereren bergen een veel grotere afvoer vanuit ografische neerslag en vertragen ze het vrijkomen van water door het op te slaan in sneeuw en gletsjers. Vanwege hun buffercapaciteit, bijvoorbeeld door gletsjersmeltwater te leveren tijdens het hete en droge seizoen, zorgen bergen voor een relatief constante watervoorziening van stroomafwaartse gebieden (Immerzeel et al., 2019; Viviroli et al., 2003). Dit water wordt gebruikt om ecosystemen te onderhouden, gewassen te irrigeren en voedsel te produceren (Biemans et al., 2019), voor huishoudelijke en industriële doeleinden, en om het grootste deel van de beschikbare waterkracht op te wekken (Gernaat et al., 2017; Hoes et al., 2017).
Bergketens zijn kwetsbare systemen: klimaatverandering treft harder op grote hoogte, waar de temperatuur sneller stijgt dan in de omliggende laaglanden (Pepin et al., 2015), en beïnvloedt de opslag van water als gletsjerijs en sneeuw (Kraaijenbrink et al., 2017). Dit leidt tot veranderingen in hydrologische regimes met seizoensverschuivingen en snellere hydrologische respons (Huss and Hock, 2018; Lutz et al., 2014). Aan de andere kant zal de druk op de hoge bergwatervoorraden toenemen met de toenemende stroomafwaartse watervraag onder sociaal-economische ontwikkeling. Klimaatverandering leidt ook tot een toename van extreem weer in bergen, die nu al worden gekenmerkt door frequent extreem weer. Dit verhoogt het risico op overstromingen en aardverschuivingen sterk.
Samenvattend zijn berggebieden en hun benedenstroomse gebieden onderhevig aan sterke toekomstige veranderingen, waar rekening mee moet worden gehouden bij de aanpassing aan de klimaatverandering en investeringsbeslissingen.
FutureWater-aanpak
FutureWater heeft een unieke, wereldwijd toonaangevende expertise op het gebied van berghydrologie. Deze expertise wordt gebruikt in onderzoek en consultancy, waarbij we regelmatig ons hydrologische model Spatial Processes in Hydrology (SPHY) inzetten, dat specifieke sterke punten heeft in het simuleren van hydrologie in de hoge bergen waar betrouwbare gegevens schaars zijn. We ontwikkelen prognoses over toekomstige waterbeschikbaarheid; geven gedetailleerd inzicht in verwachte verschuivingen van seizoensinvloeden voor de watervoorziening en kunnen beoordelen hoe deze aansluiten bij toekomstige veranderingen in de watervraag. Voor de waterkrachtsector bieden we gedetailleerde analyses over toekomstige stroom- en energieopwekking waarin projecties over klimaatverandering zijn meegenomen waarmee investeringen in waterkracht klimaatrobuust kunnen worden onderbouwd. Daarnaast bieden we klimaatrisicobeoordelingen in bergachtige regio’s voor een reeks sectoren. We bieden onderzoek en advies op verschillende schaalniveau’s variërend van lokale kleinere stroomgebieden tot meervoudige rivierstroomgebieden van de grootste rivieren op aarde. Onze beoordelingen stoppen niet bij de overgang van hoogland naar laagland, maar we leggen de link tussen de bovenstroomse en benedenstroomse gebieden om een geïntegreerd advies te kunnen geven, rekening houdend met de volledige zogenaamde water-voedsel-energie nexus.
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