Uitdaging
De wereld staat voor een fundamentele uitdaging: voldoen aan de groeiende wereldwijde vraag naar betaalbare elektriciteit voor het ontwikkelen van economieën en het uitbannen van armoede, terwijl de CO2-uitstoot drastisch wordt verminderd en de rivieren, wetlands en bossen van de wereld en de gemeenschappen die daarvan afhankelijk zijn, worden beschermd. De realiteit van klimaatverandering vereist dat de wereld overgaat naar een duurzamere energietoekomst.
Waterkracht is een belangrijke CO2-arme optie, maar het gebruik ervan wordt vaak in verband gebracht met grote sociale en milieueffecten, zoals de verplaatsing van gemeenschappen en het verlies van rivieren en hun diverse ecosystemen. Waterkrachtontwikkeling staat voor de uitdaging om geloofwaardige alternatieven voor te stellen en om de behoefte aan dergelijke stuwdammen te verminderen.
Een stroomgebieds- of systeemschaalbenadering is essentieel voor de ontwikkeling van waterkracht om duurzame resultaten van waterkrachtprojecten over de hele wereld te garanderen. Zowel landschappelijke planning als integratie van milieueisen en ander gebruik, kunnen ecosysteemdiensten ondersteunen en het potentieel bieden voor brede economische voordelen naast energieopwekking. Andere voordelen zijn bijvoorbeeld watervoorziening, overstromingsrisicobeheer, irrigatie en leefgebied voor trekvissen en biodiversiteit. Bovendien biedt deze aanpak een platform om projecten beter te betrekken bij belanghebbenden en andere projecten die in hetzelfde stroomgebied opereren. Om een systeemmatige aanpak te ondersteunen, zijn waterbeschikbaarheidsanalyses nodig, rekening houdend met deze mogelijke voordelen.
FutureWater-aanpak
FutureWater past een moderne toolset, inclusief tools die in eigen beheer worden ontwikkeld, toe op een breed scala aan duurzame waterkrachtprojecten. Afhankelijk van de context en de belangrijkste vragen worden een tool en een of meerdere datasets geselecteerd. Voorbeelden zijn hoge resolutie satellietgegevens voor gletjers in hoge berggebieden en datasets met wereldwijde klimaatgegevens voor hydrologische modellen.
Voor kleine waterkrachtprojecten in hooggebergte-gebieden wordt bijvoorbeeld typisch het glacio-hydrologische model SPHY toegepast om afvoeren en de kans op extreme overstromingen te beoordelen. Hetzelfde model, in combinatie met de output van een ensemble van klimaatmodellen, kan worden gebruikt om klimaatrisico’s en effecten van klimaatverandering te beoordelen, maar ook de mogelijkheden voor het vergroten van de klimaatbestendigheid van een waterkrachtcentrale te analyseren.
FuturWater heeft uitgebreide ervaring met het beoordelen van het potentieel voor duurzame landgebruiksactiviteiten in een stroomgebied, de kosten en baten ervan, de impact op de opwekking van waterkracht en de vraag naar en aanbod van ander gebruik en gebruikers. Om de dialoog met belanghebbenden te ondersteunen en kwantitatief bewijs te leveren over mogelijke succesvolle inkomsten(deling) uit waterkracht, kan een analyse van het rendement op investeringen worden uitgevoerd en gepresenteerd op manieren die voor een breed publiek verteerbaar zijn.
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